A. Gruzdev : “American pragmatism is unfailing”

Alexander Gruzdev: After the post-pandemic turmoil, the market has stabilised. While new vehicle sales have returned to their pre-2020 levels, demand remains constrained by high prices and interest rates that are weighing on purchasing power. As a direct result, Americans are keeping their vehicles longer. The average age of the fleet rose to a record 12.8 years in 2025. This structural ageing directly benefits the aftermarket, one of the most resilient segments of the economy. According to S&P Global Mobility, turnover (parts and labour) is expected to reach €435 billion this year (or even €450 billion according to Autocare). The sector is driven by the complexity of repairs, but also by the rise of do-it-yourself (DIY) repairs in the face of rising labour costs. This landscape is dominated by the ‘Big Four’: AutoZone, O'Reilly, GPC and Advance Auto Parts. Thanks to their logistical power and their private labels, they exercise almost unchallenged dominance over distribution.

A.G.: The main driver of growth is high technology: the ADAS calibration and on-board electronics are strong drivers of profitability. Conversely, the market has to contend with headwinds: persistent inflation on parts, labour shortages and, above all, new tariffs that increase the cost of steel, aluminium and imported components.

A.G.: For the moment, we are still very much in the realm of political communication, but concrete impacts are emerging. The strongest signal was the elimination of tax incentives for electric vehicles on 30 September. This is a serious blow to local manufacturers. Furthermore, his protectionist policy is a double-edged sword. Customs duties increase production costs, which manufacturers pass on to the final sale price. This risks stifling demand in the mass market. For motorists, it also translates into a mechanical increase in repair bills at garages.

A.G.: American consumers are pragmatic above all else. Three factors are currently holding back the adoption of electric vehicles: a still inadequate charging infrastructure (range anxiety), low petrol prices, and the end of government subsidies. Until the economic equation and everyday use become more favourable, electric vehicle growth will remain slow.

A.G.: The Chinese threat is omnipresent and systemic: they dominate everything from batteries to raw materials and spare parts. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration, which is redefining the rules of trade. But the most profound challenge is technological. In 2024, artificial intelligence was talked about as a tool; in 2025, it became the ‘operating system’ for businesses. We are no longer adapting to AI, we are rebuilding our model around it. This is radically transforming processes and, inevitably, the job market. The current waves of redundancies in large corporations are only the beginning of this profound restructuring.

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