Trump Tariffs: What if the trade war were to flop?

The American threat loomed for months with stratospheric tariff s. In the end, the overall rate in Europe is 11%, which is still much higher than the previous 2.5%, but absorbable by American companies that had anticipated the move by increasing their imports before the axe fell. For example, analysts are talking about a negative effect of around -0.1% on France’s GDP. However, the impact is more severe for Chinese companies, which are threatened with 100% customs duties on their exports unless they have previously signed trade agreements, as well as Indian (50%) and Canadian (35%) companies. Added to this are special tariff s of 25%, particularly on automotive and heavy goods vehicles.

Then there is the decoupling of China and the US, leading to a 28% drop in Chinese exports to the US, with a sharp shift towards Africa and Latin America (+27%) and, to a lesser extent, Europe (+10%). This is enough to draw a new configuration of the global economic order that is disrupting value chains. And while the automo-tive aftermarket ecosystem as a whole has not been destabilised by these ‘attacks on 'free trade’, the issue is more pressing for global equipment manufacturers. “The United States’ customs policy makes it difficult to predict how the market will evolve”, says Marc Siemssen, a member of Meyle’s executive committee. This has a greater impact on manufacturers such as Brembo, which is directly affected by 72.5% customs duties on parts, particularly brake pads, all of which are manufactured in China! “As distributors, we are therefore very attentive to how our equipment manufacturer partners are absorbing these crises”, comments Stéphane Antiglio, President of Parts Holding Europe. The supply chain is also being disrupted. “Even companies that do not trade directly with the United States are feeling the indirect repercussions as global logistics are being reorganised. Costs are rising, supply chains are being diverted and administrative complexity is increasing”, says Fotios
Katsardis, president of Temot. It remains to be seen whether the consequences of this transatlantic tariff wall and China’s offensive towards markets outside the US will remain manageable in 2026!