GIPA : How to anticipate the aftermarket of tomorrow

END OF ICE: The scheduled end of sales of ICE vehicles concerns Europe for 2035 (2030 for UK). North America and the United States in particular (apart from California), South America and China have not signed any commitment to this effect. This decision by Brussels is causing a stir in Europe. Italy refuses to submit to it and France is calling for a postponement to 2040. Germany says is will only sign if e-fuel engines are included in the review clause in 2026.

IMPACTS: Compared to other continents, Europe will rapidly shake up its on-the-road fleet. In 2025, the G5* countries’ parcs should be made up of 38% diesel, 48% petrol and 14% hybrid/electric (up 9 points). The pace will accelerate with massive injections of new electric models from new Asian manufacturers, but also the banning of diesel vehicles in cities (Paris in 2024) and subsidies for the purchase of an electric vehicle. *GiPA G5- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom

THE NORWEGIAN EXAMPLE: Comparing an ICE and an electric vehicle between four and seven years old, the brake pad market fell by 8 points (34%) in Norway, where 80% of vehicle sales are electric. Applied to the GiPA G5, that would be over 8 million fewer replacement discs to sell. Maintenance costs for electric vehicles have fallen by 39% with workshop time reduced by 16% in Norway. Applied to the G5, car manufacturers’ networks will be the first affected, which could lose up to 68,200 employees in workshops and 48,700 in new car sales.

OPPORTUNITIES: This forced transition should lead automotive professionals to work on other promising avenues. Big Data, start-ups and hyper-local urban strategies should bring customers back to the workshop. New investors are emerging in IAM with new services. Autodoc, for example, has exceeded one billion euros in turnover in nine years with end customers, and is looking at workshops in 2023.