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Russia : the year of the big shake-up

Jérémie Morvan
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Atlas_russie

The Russian market experienced an extraordinary 2022 from all points of view due to the conflict with Ukraine...

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Faced with the embargoes by Western countries, the shutdown of vehicle factories and the halt on imports which starved the OES segment, and the choice of Western parts suppliers to stop delivering parts aimed at the independent market, the Russian aftermarket was obliged to reinvent itself at pace. “In the space of a few weeks, the supplies of replacement parts from western parts suppliers – the main source for the Russian market – totally dried up, to such an extent that they only accounted for 15% of what the market would usually take in”, notes a market player who wishes to remain anonymous. The distribution thus began to re-source, much to the benefit of Chinese, Korean, Turkish and Indian suppliers, whose products are resold under private label or the brands of range supplier-assemblers.

From European to Asian

These were the big winners in 2022, aided by lower consumer purchasing power and most of all by the absence of traditional parts suppliers. With, in the background, galloping inflation estimated at 25% by Alexander Grusdev, the founder of the analytics firm of the same name. And while sales volumes are expected to clock in at -20% for the second half of the year due to a loss of purchasing power, inflation should make up much of the lost ground. It nevertheless remains that turnover increases are just window dressing, and Grusdev-Analyze fears a massacre among distributors next year. “The big losers will have been the Western parts suppliers”, concludes our informant. This analysis is corroborated by Alexander Grusdev: “If there is one thing to take away from 2022, it is that the Russian market quit the large European parts market. In less than 12 months, it has become Asian; not yet perfectly structured due to the few contacts previously made, but the foundations are now clearly laid.

Jérémie Morvan
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