Transformation of the global fleet: Away with the electric scarecrow

Gaël Escribe, the CEO of Nexus is particularly irked and worried by this widespread one-track thinking: “We need to put an end to the apocalyptic outlook whereby the aftermarket in 2035 is ravaged by an increasingly electric vehicle fleet in industrialised countries. Firstly, because I don’t believe that this transformation will be as radical as that; and secondly, because the infrastructure (production, EV transport and charging) is not aligned with the forecasts of certain consultancies. Simply look at the limitations of Italian infrastructure in this area, and you already have a fine example of this contradiction.” 

Even the car industry unofficially admits that it does not have the resources for such a rapid transformation. “Behind the big official announcements hailing an all-electric future, manufacturers have much more pragmatic plans that draw on the hybridisation of much more varied solutions.”

According to Gaël Escribe, this vision of all-electric will inevitably reach its limits: “We are overlooking the fact that it will be impossible for all emerging countries to achieve mass electrification.” He recalls that while developed countries have up to 800 vehicles (cars, LCVs and HGVs) per 1,000 inhabitants, the world average is still only around 200 per 1,000, with 223 in China, 49 in Africa and... 33 in India, three areas which in 2022 will account for almost half of the planet’s 8 billion inhabitants. 

And half of these people rely overwhelmingly on combustion engines for their mobility. “The fleet is therefore bound to evolve towards several solutions, and will remain predominantly combustion-powered on a global scale”, he predicts.

As a result, the situation is urgent... “I’m trying to reason with certain consultancies who are making things difficult for the whole aftermarket by waving the electric scarecrow at investors who are pulling out of the aftermarket.” But, he insists, “we need the financial community to prepare for the future and finance the consolidation of the market and its innovations”. 

It is becoming vital to mobilise voices that are a little more enlightened than the solely electric vision that is driving political and financial strategies. “It’s a fundamental issue that urgently needs to inspire the sector’s leadership”, he says. It will therefore be one of the themes addressed at the Nexus global meeting in Monaco, which will celebrate the organisation’s tenth anniversary and, of course, discuss the challenges of the next ten years...