United-States : A country defying predictions

Contrary to all expectations, new vehicle sales in 2023 maintained a growth rate of 7% (15.7million units sold) despite the challenges posed by inflation and persistently high interest rates. This achievement is noteworthy even in the face of unprecedented strikes lasting months, orchestrated by the formidable UAW union against GM, Ford, and Stellantis brands. These strikes paralyzed factories and inflicted an estimated loss of several billion dollars on the economy. Conversely, after years of ascending to new heights, the used vehicle market experienced a downturn, reaching a level not seen since 2013. The electric vehicle sector is also losing momentum in the absence of government incentives, the sole catalyst capable of reigniting growth. According to the latest report from the 2024 Cetelem Automobile Observatory, states such as Colorado, Illinois, Louisiana, and California offer incentives ranging from $2,000 to $6,000per vehicle. However, the average incentive for buyers of plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles falls below $1,000. Despite this, a significant 62% of Americans believe that 100% electric vehicles will eventually replace traditional ICE vehicles entirely. While the road looks promising, patience is required. McKinsey estimates the full-electric market share to be 1.5% in 2025 (compared to 0.5% in 2023). 
According to JD Power, 83.4% of sales are still traditional ICE, followed by hybrids (7.6%), electric vehicles (7.2%), and plug-in hybrids (1.8%). After three lively post-Covid years, the economic recovery faces the threat of being stifled by a persistent inflationary surge and interest rates that remain elevated. The average American’s budget is under strain, with the monthly vehicle loan repayment averaging $725 (+$75 compared to 2022). This financial pressure prompts individuals to prioritize their expenditures. 

In 2023 alone, there was an almost 22% increase in the proportion of consumers who deferred vehicle servicing. The aftermarket is benefitting from a surge in business with average repair expenses amounting to $800 per year ($67 per month) for vehicle owners, according to the AAA. This windfall further strengthens the positions of the four aftermarket leaders. 
AutoZone growing by 7.4% to $17.4 billion in 2023 with 6,900 sales points, 
O’Reilly with sales of $14.4 billion in 2022 operating through 5,900 sales points in the United States and Mexico. 
GPC Automotive’s global sales, excluding industrial, grew by 9% in 2022, totalling $13.6 billion, across 10,000 sales points. 
Advance Auto Parts generated $11.3 billion in turnover in 2023. 
“The trend of drivers keeping their vehicles for longer has increased mileage by 4%, and the average age of cars reached 12.5 years, three months more than in 2022”, says consultant Alexander Gruzdev. This constitutes a record in the United States. Additionally, 42% of the vehicle fleet is over 12 years old. In this resilient sector, the aftermarket has achieved a record turnover of almost $390 billion in 2023, an increase of 8%. Independents and retailers, including numerous private labels hold a dominant position. Eighty percent of all car repairs are carried out in professional workshops and garages. 

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